Russian Gas Transit via Ukraine Ends, Marking a Turning Point for Europe
Gas flows from Russia to the European Union via Ukraine ceased following the expiry of a five-year transit deal, bringing an end to a decades-long arrangement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of exploiting the situation, stating that Ukraine would not allow Moscow to “earn additional billions on our blood”. Meanwhile, Poland’s government hailed the stoppage as “another victory” against Russia.
The European Commission assured that the EU had prepared for this scenario, with most member states able to manage the change. However, Moldova, which lies outside the EU, is already experiencing energy shortages.
Alternative Routes for Russian Gas
Russia continues to supply gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. Russian energy giant Gazprom confirmed that exports through Ukraine to Europe stopped at 08:00 local time (05:00 GMT) on Wednesday, marking the end of an arrangement that began in 1991.
While the immediate impacts on Europe are limited, the broader strategic and symbolic consequences are significant. Russia has lost a key market, but President Vladimir Putin insists the EU will bear the brunt of the fallout.
Declining EU Dependence on Russian Gas
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian gas. By 2023, Russian gas accounted for less than 10% of the bloc’s imports, down from 40% in 2021. However, some eastern EU member states, including Slovakia and Austria, still depend heavily on Russian supplies, generating around €5 billion (£4.2 billion) annually for Moscow.
Austria has diversified its energy sources and built up reserves to avoid disruptions. However, Slovakia, which now serves as the primary entry point for Russian gas into the EU, faces rising costs for alternative routes. Slovakia’s energy regulator has already announced consumer price increases in 2025. Prime Minister Robert Fico warned that the end of the deal would have “drastic” consequences for the EU, though not for Russia.
Tensions and Criticism
Fico’s recent visit to Moscow to meet Putin has raised eyebrows. He threatened to cut electricity exports to Ukraine, prompting criticism from Zelensky, who accused him of aiding Russia’s efforts to harm Ukraine. Poland has offered to support Ukraine if Slovakia ceases electricity exports, emphasising alternative gas supply routes through terminals in Croatia, Germany, and Poland.
Moldova Faces Severe Energy Challenges
Moldova is particularly vulnerable to the fallout. Much of its electricity is generated by a power plant reliant on Russian gas, which also supplies the separatist region of Transnistria. Gazprom announced it would restrict gas supplies to Moldova over alleged unpaid debts—a claim denied by Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, who accused Russia of weaponising energy. Transnistria has already experienced heating and hot water cuts, with residents urged to conserve energy amid freezing temperatures. Moldova has declared a 60-day energy emergency and accused the Kremlin of using “blackmail” to destabilise the country ahead of its 2025 general election.
Europe’s Broader Energy Strategy
The EU has sought to diversify its energy sources, turning to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United States, as well as piped gas from Norway. In December, the European Commission unveiled plans to fully replace gas transiting through Ukraine.
The end of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal signals a new chapter in Europe’s energy landscape, highlighting the geopolitical challenges and the urgent need for energy security and diversification.