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Energy Markets
20.03.2026
Energy markets moved sharply higher on Thursday, with increased volatility across oil, gas and power following further escalation in the Middle East.
Oil markets saw significant swings throughout the day after Iran launched overnight strikes on energy infrastructure in the region. Brent crude rose during the session, reaching an intraday high of $119 per barrel before easing back, while US crude briefly moved above $100 per barrel before closing slightly lower. In response to the situation, the US government signalled measures to increase supply, as political pressure builds ahead of the upcoming November elections.
Gas markets reacted strongly. UK NBP spot prices surged by 13% to 153.50 p/therm following reports of attacks on Qatar’s key LNG export facilities. Concerns around potential damage at Ras Laffan have increased fears of a prolonged disruption to global supply.
Further along the curve, the Summer 2026 gas contract rose by nearly 14% to 152.42 p/therm, reflecting expectations that supply constraints linked to the conflict could continue in the near term.
European electricity prices also moved higher. German day-ahead power prices increased by 26% to £143/MWh, driven by lower wind generation and cooler temperatures. In France, prices rose more sharply, with the day-ahead contract up 79% to €55.07/MWh.
On the forward curve, power prices followed the strength seen in gas markets. The German Cal’27 contract rose by over 6% to €98.22/MWh, while the French equivalent increased by 3% to €56.96/MWh.
In contrast, European carbon prices moved lower. Ongoing discussions around potential EU ETS reforms and wider policy changes aimed at reducing electricity costs weighed on the market. As a result, the December 2026 carbon contract fell by 3.4% to €63.65 per tonne.