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Energy Markets
04.06.2025
Crude oil prices declined on Friday, weighed by expectations that OPEC+ may agree to a larger output hike for July, potentially exceeding the 411,000 bpd increases set for May and June. The anticipated move comes amid a growing global surplus of 2.2 million bpd, raising the likelihood of a price correction.
European carbon prices extended losses on Friday, pressured by a broader sell-off across commodity and financial markets following conflicting announcements on US tariff policy, which kept speculative interest in EUAs subdued. As a result, EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 declined by 0.8% to 70.41 EUR/tonne.
The NBP spot price slumped by over 4% to 79.15 p/therm on Friday, amid ample supply and the end of some maintenance outages affecting Norwegian infrastructure. On the forward curve, the Winter 2025 delivery contract dipped by 3% to 91.21 p/therm, due to uncertainty over US tariffs following a recent court ruling that left them in place for now.
European spot power prices showed mixed trends on Friday. The German spot price soared by over 46% to 70.51 EUR/MWh, driven by forecasts of higher demand. In contrast, the French spot price hiked by more than 30% to 29.36 EUR/MWh, as EDF planned to restart its 905 MW Chinon 4 and 910 MW Gravelines 2 nuclear units. On the forward curve, prices declined, tracking weaker gas and carbon markets. As a result, the German Cal-2026 contract fell by 1.3% to around 86 EUR/MWh. The French similar contract decreased by 0.4% to 60.44 EUR/MWh.