March 2025 Energy Market Review

Volatility and Geopolitical Developments

Throughout March, the energy market continued to experience volatility in response to ongoing and ever-changing geopolitical narratives. However, there have been indications of a potential reduction in tensions, with reports suggesting progress towards a ceasefire.

Seasonal Trends and Renewable Output

As temperatures returned to seasonal averages, renewable energy output improved, providing some stability to the market. This seasonal shift has helped offset some of the price fluctuations seen earlier in the year.

European Storage Levels and LNG Competition

Heading into April, market analysts will continue to monitor European storage levels, which remain below the five-year average. The competition for LNG cargoes between Europe and Asia remains a crucial factor influencing market movements. However, with the European Commission reducing the storage target for November from 90%, importers are not facing urgent pressure to secure additional cargoes immediately. Instead, there is an expectation that summer will provide ample time to refill reserves.

Planned Outages and Market Impact

There is a key focus on planned outages, particularly in Norwegian plants and LNG facilities. These disruptions will amplify the effects of fluctuating temperatures on market prices, though prices are expected to remain within the current range.

Market Outlook and Future Considerations

Looking ahead, the primary focus will be on storage levels and whether LNG cargoes continue to favour Europe for injection. Further along the pricing curve, market conditions remain favourable.

If you would like to discuss these market developments further or receive a quick update, please get in touch with our team. You can contact our Head of Trading, Peter Leyland at Peter.Leyland@gleg.co.uk.