Energy Volatility Returns Following Trump’s India Comments…

Ongoing geopolitical tensions have continued to play an adverse role in energy markets over the past few years. With transportation challenges and supply concerns becoming the ever present highlights. President Donald Trump has once again turned his attention to sanctions.

Sanctions have been suggested surrounding Russia, in an attempt to reduce the Ukraine-Russia conflict. A 25% tariff has been threatened on India, as they remain a significant importer of Russian supply (particularly crude oil), and more recently, tariffs on copper imports have also been announced.

Despite the initial reaction in the markets, it’s important to note that tariff suggestions are often short lived, or end up having minimal impact (in relation to the energy markets). For example, copper prices surged and then retraced after it was clarified that raw copper would not be subject to the tariffs.

What is important to note, is that when tariffs are announced, there are retaliations, which could escalate, on the other hand, these also can be removed near instantaneously, which bolsters the likelihood of spikes while negotiations sustain.

The fundamental truth: no one knows where energy prices are going. The supply picture continues to evolve, with Europe pushing toward greener alternatives and competition intensifying for LNG imports. It’s a diverse and uncertain supply landscape, and despite efforts to stabilise it, volatility remains the norm.

Is this kind of volatility already feeding into your energy decisions or are you waiting to see how things unfold? It would be great to hear your view, I’m available directly at Peter.Leyland@gleg.co.uk if you’d like to explore what this could mean for your business.