Storage Fear or Confidence for Winter 2025

European gas storage levels have been the fundamental driving force of volatility and momentum in markets for some time; this fact was amplified as Russian gas supplies became restrictive. Since 2022, a large scarcity hangs over the markets with many analysts contemplating the developing supply and demand factors.

Storage levels at the end of March 2025 settled at around 33%. This is a concerning low rate, if ample injection did not flow through Summer, Winter 2025 could have been subject to a gas supply crisis. Elevating the pressure were the transportation issues surrounding the red-sea, which could have resulted in a lag of Injection into Europe. Israel and Iran tensions have also provoked concern surrounding supply from Qatar.

Markets have held the precedence of uncertainty, as any slight political shift or supply disruption has resulted in markets spiking, resulting in a large range throughout 2025. It is easy to get lost in the noise and dramatic impacts on market prices day to day, however, thankfully throughout 2025, supply has continued to inject into European storage.

Target ratios have also been a changing factor. Originally set at 90%, storage targets withdrew all the way to 83%, before returning to 87%, with this in mind, the ever-fluctuation target could add a layer of concern.

At the time of writing, storage levels have recovered at a significant rate, bolstering back to the five-year average, and with the current injection rates, certain targets could be met by the close of September. Storage levels are currently around 72%, and (if the current injection trend sustains) we project the 80% target being hit by the 10th September and 90% by the 12th October.

Supply risks still have a hold on the market, but they do not need to hold the same risk over your energy bills. At GLEG we provide a dynamic strategy to protect your energy budgets, for more information please contact Peter.Leyland@gleg.co.uk.