GLEG UK Energy Market Update…
November 24, 2025
European natural gas prices have fallen to their lowest point in 18 months, highlighting how quickly sentiment can shift in today’s energy markets.
Recent forecasts pointing to milder temperatures across northwest Europe—after the current cold snap—have eased near-term demand expectations. At the same time, renewed focus on a proposed U.S. peace plan for Ukraine has added a geopolitical tailwind, encouraging expectations of more stable supply conditions.
By late morning in Amsterdam, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures—the key benchmark for European gas trading—were down around 2.5% to roughly €30.4 per MWh. That’s the weakest level seen since May 2024, ending a long stretch where futures hovered close to €32 per MWh.
What’s driving the move?
- Weather outlook: Warmer conditions in the weeks ahead reduce immediate heating demand, pushing prices lower.
- Geopolitical signals: Traders are watching talks around a U.S.-backed Ukraine peace framework. If progress materialises, it could eventually soften restrictions on Russian energy flows—though outcomes remain highly uncertain.
- Supply balance: While European gas storage sits below last year’s level, strong LNG imports are helping narrow supply concerns.
Why it matters…
Even with inventories tighter, Europe is seeing short-term relief through LNG availability and shifting risk perceptions. But volatility isn’t going away. Through winter, gas prices will continue to react sharply to:
- sudden temperature changes,
- geopolitical developments, and
- any unplanned supply disruptions.
Please contact hello@gleg.co.uk for a more detailed market analysis and expert view on how to navigate your energy procurement strategy through the current market volatility.