LNG Surplus Looms in 2026, Setting Stage for Lower Global Gas Prices

A major wave of new LNG supply is set to hit the market in 2026 — and it’s likely to keep global gas prices under pressure. Forecasts from international energy bodies show strong growth as new liquefaction projects in the US, Qatar, Canada, Mexico, and Africa come online. Together, they’re expected to add more than 40 million tonnes per year of capacity next year, with further increases through 2030.

Trade flows are shifting fast…

Since the Russia–Ukraine war, Europe has replaced much of its Russian pipeline gas with LNG, particularly from the US. China, meanwhile, has increased Russian pipeline imports and reduced LNG purchases, reshaping global demand patterns.

One of the strongest growth years in a decade…

OAPEC expert Wael Hamed Abdel Moati estimates global LNG supply could rise to roughly 470 million tonnes in 2026, up from around 428 million tonnes in 2025 — close to a 10% jump. The growth is led by large US projects (Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines), Qatar’s North Field East expansion, LNG Canada, Mexico’s Costa Azul, and additional African exports.

Prices likely to soften — timing matters…

If startups stay broadly on schedule, the added supply should loosen market balances and push spot benchmarks in Asia (JKM) and Europe (TTF) toward $10/MMBtu, narrowing regional price gaps. Delays could shift part of the surplus into 2027, but analysts say the oversupply is hard to avoid.

Demand uncertainty and contract pressure…

Demand growth is less certain. China has reduced imports in 2025, Japan and South Korea are mature markets, and Europe’s recent LNG surge may not last. That leaves newer Asian buyers to absorb more volumes — likely only if prices fall far enough. In a looser market, buyers are expected to push for shorter contracts and more flexible terms, especially with a sizeable share of upcoming capacity still uncontracted.

We’re tracking how this supply wave and demand uncertainty shape pricing, procurement, and risk through 2026–2030. If you’d like to discuss what this could mean for your portfolio, contact us at hello@gleg.co.uk.