If This Was 2022, Prices Would Be Exploding. Here’s Why They’re Not…

Storage levels in Europe remain one of the most powerful indicators of gas market health. In 2022, low storage was the headline that mattered above all else. Inventories dictated sentiment, risk premium surged, and prices reacted violently because there was no clear back-up plan. Low storage meant genuine fear about keeping the lights on.

Fast forward to today, and the market tone looks very different. March 2025 closed with European storage around 33%, a level that would once have triggered panic. Instead, the system refilled to roughly 83% by the start of winter. That experience matters. It has reshaped expectations and changed how traders, utilities and large consumers think about risk. Storage is still important but it is no longer the only anchor.

That confidence is coming from supply optionality. Floating LNG cargoes have become a visible buffer rather than an abstract concept, while new LNG projects scheduled through 2026 are reinforcing the idea that supply can respond. The market is increasingly pricing access to gas, not just what’s already in the ground. That shift alone explains why prices can fall even when storage headlines look uncomfortable.

But here’s the part that shouldn’t be ignored. This calm only holds while the system believes it has flexibility. If storage is depleted faster than expected through colder weather, weaker renewables, or infrastructure stress sentiment can turn quickly. The market may be calmer than 2022, but it is still reactive, and complacency is where volatility is born.

Which brings this back to buyers. If you’re effectively gambling your energy spend by relying on headlines without understanding what’s really driving price behaviour, that’s an unnecessary risk. A clear strategy, grounded in how the market actually works today, matters more than ever.

If you want to understand what’s moving prices and how to manage exposure without guessing get in touch with us at hello@gleg.co.uk.