ESOS Phase 4: What Businesses Need to Know
August 27, 2026
UK Energy Market Summary to Friday 28th August 2026
Closing prices 28.08.2026
Wholesale gas and power markets strengthened during the week ending 28 August, while oil moved lower. UK NBP Winter-26 gas increased by approximately 4.1% to 169.3p/therm and day-ahead gas reached approximately 166.5p/therm. Low European storage and continued disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz kept winter supply risk firmly priced into the market. UK Winter-26 electricity rose by approximately 3.2% to £137.7/MWh as higher gas costs fed through into power prices.
European gas storage was 62.32% in the latest supplied weekly observation on 21 August, with late-August reporting placing stocks at approximately 63%. This remains materially below the typical late-August level of around 80%, leaving Europe dependent on sustained injections, Norwegian pipeline flows and sufficient LNG availability ahead of winter. The forward curve remains strongly backwardated: calendar-28 gas averaged approximately 77p/therm and electricity £71.6/MWh, materially below Winter-26.
Although near-term prices remain elevated, the forward curve continues to offer more attractive value from 2028 onwards, with electricity trading at approximately 6-8p/kWh and gas at 2–3p/kWh. Businesses should consider securing a proportion of future requirements at these levels to improve long-term budget certainty, control cash flow and reduce exposure to further geopolitical or supply-driven volatility.
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Brent crude fell by approximately 5.4% during the week to $89.31/bbl, reversing the previous week’s gain. Prices eased as more oil moved from the Gulf, Saudi shipments increased and Iraq used alternative export routes. Discussion of a possible new shipment corridor also reduced the immediate premium attached to restricted Strait of Hormuz flows. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, but improved physical supply prevented Brent from holding above $90/bbl.