GLEG UK Energy Market Update 19-10-26…
October 19, 2026
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October 27, 2026
UK Energy Market Summary to Friday 23rd October 2026
Closing prices 23.10.2026
Wholesale energy markets strengthened during the week ending Friday 23rd October, with rising geopolitical risks adding pressure across gas and electricity forward contracts. UK day-ahead gas rose by approximately 5% week-on-week, while November-26 gas increased by 6.7%. Electricity forward prices also moved higher, with one-year contracts rising 4.0% and two-year contracts gaining 4.6%. Renewed disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports of further damage to shipping, reinforced concerns over global LNG availability as Europe approaches winter.
The main concern for European gas markets remains the combination of constrained supply flexibility and below-average storage. EU gas storage stood at approximately 74.6% full, around 16.4 percentage points below its five-year seasonal norm of 91%. Norwegian pipeline supply has recovered following maintenance, providing some support to the market, but this has not been enough to offset wider concerns over LNG flows and Middle Eastern shipping routes.
Forward markets continued to price in elevated costs beyond the immediate winter period. Summer-27 gas stood at approximately 6.0p/kWh, with Winter-27 at 5.7p/kWh. Electricity for Summer-27 traded around 13.2p/kWh, while Summer-28 stood at 8.4p/kWh. Although later delivery periods remain cheaper than nearer-term contracts, the recent upward movement across the curve suggests that supply risks are no longer confined to the coming winter. Future prices remain sensitive to LNG availability, weather, demand and geopolitical developments.
GLEG recommends aligning procurement decisions with actual exposure rather than relying on short-term price movements to predict the market’s direction. Businesses with unhedged Winter-26 and Q1-27 requirements should review budget tolerance and consider phased purchasing within agreed risk limits. For 2027–2030 requirements, measured layering can help secure longer-term prices while retaining flexibility. With storage below seasonal norms and geopolitical uncertainty elevated, a structured procurement strategy remains preferable to relying on prices falling.
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Brent crude rose to approximately $116.72/bbl on Friday 23rd October, up around 6.2% over the week, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including energy infrastructure, heightened concerns over supply disruption. An oil spill off the UAE coast and escalating risks to commercial shipping added further pressure, with markets increasingly focused on potential disruption to Middle Eastern exports.