EU Carbon Border Tax Reforms: A Step Forward, but Not Far Enough for Metals
December 23, 2025
EDF has reaffirmed its nuclear production targets for 2026 and 2027, maintaining an expected range of 350–370 TWh, while introducing a wider forecast band of 345–375 TWh for 2028.
The broader range reflects growing uncertainty around electricity demand trends and reactor modulation, as well as the impact of major maintenance programmes. These include the completion of fourth ten-year inspections for 900 MW reactors and the start of inspections for 1,300 MW units from 2026.
Looking ahead to 2025, EDF expects nuclear output to exceed 370 TWh for the first time since 2019, driven by improved reactor availability. This comes despite rising modulation levels — output reductions during periods of oversupply and low prices — which reached 18 TWh in the first half of 2025. Grid operator RTE has warned that modulation could increase further, potentially reaching 50 TWh by 2030.
Over the long term, EDF continues to target annual nuclear production above 400 TWh, stressing that realised output will ultimately depend on demand.
Market analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA anticipate only a modest dip in output in 2026 and 2027, forecasting around 370 TWh and 364 TWh, respectively. These projections now include Flamanville-3, France’s newest reactor, which has reached full power for the first time. The unit is due to shut down in September 2026 for its first major overhaul.
On the pricing side, French year-ahead power prices briefly fell below €48/MWh in early December — the lowest level since 2020 — before rebounding above €50/MWh amid cooler weather forecasts for early January.