“Countries continue constructing new LNG infrastructure: eight import terminals have come online since February 2022, and a further 13 projects are expected to be operational by 2030,” the think tank said.
This should bring Europe’s combined LNG capacity to around 405bcm by 2030, tripling the expected demand for the fuel by the end of decade and “leaving a potential gap of around 265-270bcm of unused capacity”, according to a study. IEEFA had previously forecast a spike in LNG imports in 2023 to curb Europe’s reliance on Russian gas but flows remained flat year on year, the IEEFA said.
Russian LNG Still Flowing
The EU, along with the US, introduced sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, yet these measures excluded Russian gas. The 27-nation bloc has sought alternatives and its dependence on Russian gas has fallen from 45% in 2021 to only around 15% in 2023.
Around 45% of Europe’s LNG imports last year came from the US and about 12% came from Russia, the data showed. Spain, France and Belgium received 80% of Europe’s imports of Russian LNG last year. Russian LNG supply to Europe increased by 11% in 2021-23, with shipments to Spain doubling and to Belgium more than tripling, the study said.
“Europe’s success in slashing Russian piped gas imports contrasts with its rising shipments of LNG from the country,” it added. The European terminals that imported the most Russian LNG in2021-23 were Zeebrugge (Belgium), Montoir-de-Bretagne (France), Bilbao (Spain), Gate (the Netherlands), Dunkirk (France) and Mugardos (Spain).
Demand Drops
Meanwhile, gas consumption on the continent fell to 452bcm in 2023, its lowest level in 10 years, amid efficiency measures and renewables construction in European countries, the IEEFA said. However, European gas demand looked poised to drop to 400bcm by 2030, it added. Gas consumption in Europe has dropped 20% in 2021-23, driven mainly by Germany, Italy, and the UK, IEEFA added.
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