📈 Russian Gas Pipeline Flows to Europe Surge in July

In a surprising mid-year development, Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe rose by 37% in July compared to June, according to data compiled by Reuters. The increase followed the conclusion of scheduled maintenance work, enabling higher flows via the TurkStream pipeline—currently the sole remaining route for Russian gas to reach Europe.

🔍 Context: A Shrinking Footprint

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis of 2022, Russian gas exports to the EU have declined dramatically. The cessation of supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline (due to both reduced capacity and sabotage in late 2022), along with the end of the Ukraine transit agreement on January 1, 2025, have redefined Europe’s gas import routes.

🛤️ TurkStream: The Last Link

In July, Russia’s state gas exporter Gazprom delivered an average of 51.5 million cubic meters per day through TurkStream—marking a 4.7% increase year-on-year, and a clear rebound from the maintenance-constrained flows in June.

📉 Wider Trend Still Negative

Despite July’s spike, the broader trajectory remains downward. Total Russian gas exports to Europe (including LNG) fell sharply in the first half of 2025:

• Pipeline + LNG exports dropped to 8.33 bcm, nearly half of 2024 levels.
• Russian LNG shipments to Europe declined by 13%, following the EU’s ban on LNG transshipments in March.
• Overall Russian LNG exports dipped 4.4% globally in H1 2025, down to 15.2 million metric tons, per LSEG data.

📅 The Road Ahead: EU Phase-Out by 2027

The European Union continues to move toward full energy independence from Russia. A formal plan aims to eliminate all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, aligning energy security with climate and geopolitical priorities.

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