Geopolitics Continues to Drive Volatility
May 14, 2026
Europe’s Energy Markets Are Entering a Completely New Era
May 22, 2026
UK Energy Market Summary to Friday 15th May 2026
Closing prices 15.05.2026
Amid renewed uncertainty in the Middle East and reduced Norwegian flows, the NBP spot contract advanced by 1% to 4.1 p/kWh on Wednesday. The market was also closely monitoring developments ahead of Thursday’s US-China summit. Further along the curve, the Winter 2026 delivery contract edged higher to 3.97 p/kWh, with low European storage levels continuing to play into prices.
The NBP spot price rose by 1% to 4.14 p/kWh on Thursday as traders assessed the impact of shrinking global inventories, slower Chinese stock accumulation, and continued Strait of Hormuz constraints that may tighten balances further during the summer demand period. At the same time, the Winter 2026 delivery contract also edged higher to 4.0 p/kWh.
At time of writing, European gas storage levels are 36% full, with the UK 21% full. European gas storage levels are trending at the low of the 5-year average. Over the past week, gas has accounted for 20.2% of the UK generation mix, with wind accounting for 30.5%, solar 11.7% and nuclear accounting for 11.6%. Below summarises curve prices as at close of business on Friday.
Curve UK Gas & Electricity Markets
Other Energy Markets
Crude oil prices remained relatively stable on Thursday as reports that Iran had allowed 30 ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz helped calm supply fears. Attention also stayed on US President Donald Trump’s visit to China and its potential geopolitical implications. As a result, Brent crude settled at $105.72 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 0.2% to $101.17 per barrel.
Trading in European carbon markets remained muted on Thursday, with prices largely stable in thin liquidity. In the UK, the resignation of a prominent minister sparked fresh political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which could introduce new risks to negotiations over connecting the UK and EU carbon markets. Accordingly, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 stabilised at 75.08 EUR/tonne.