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UK Energy Market Summary to Friday 9th October 2026
Closing prices 09.10.2026
Wholesale gas, power and oil markets remained volatile during the week ending 9th October, with forward energy prices strengthening despite periods of relief in prompt electricity. At Thursday’s settlement, UK NBP day-ahead gas stood at approximately 187.25p/therm, November-26 gas at 195.67p/therm and November-26 baseload electricity at £158.35/MWh. Brent crude settled on Friday at $104.72/bbl, up around 2.4% over the week. Middle Eastern shipping risks, Norwegian outages and competition for LNG continued to support prices.
European gas storage continued to rebuild, reaching approximately 73.1% for gas day 7 October, according to data available on Friday. Stocks nevertheless remained around 16.8 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average. Extended outages at Norwegian fields and stronger Asian LNG prices added to supply concerns, leaving Europe exposed to further disruption or colder-than-expected winter demand.
The forward curve remained materially backwardated overall. At Friday’s close, Summer-27 gas was approximately 5.13p/kWh and electricity 11.80p/kWh, while Winter-28 gas stood at 3.30p/kWh and electricity 8.36p/kWh. Prices for 2028–29 remained substantially below nearer delivery periods, although lower forward prices do not guarantee savings against future spot markets. The strength in nearer contracts reinforces the case for measured purchasing against agreed budgets and risk limits.
Businesses should consider securing a measured proportion of future requirements where prices remain affordable, prioritising material exposure across the remaining Winter-26 delivery months alongside requirements for 2027–2030. A phased approach allows businesses to secure some of the lower longer-term prices while retaining flexibility should storage, pipeline supply or geopolitical conditions improve. Any unhedged volume should remain a deliberate, monitored risk position.
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Brent crude remained volatile during the week ending 9th October, settling at approximately $104.72/bbl on Friday, up around 2.4% over the week. Continued attacks on Middle Eastern shipping and hurricane-related disruption to US offshore production supported prices. Statements that the US would refrain from further strikes on Iran before November’s midterm elections provided some temporary relief, but persistent risks around the Strait of Hormuz maintained a significant geopolitical premium. A sustained easing in prices will depend on improved shipping security and the recovery of disrupted supply.