Are we in for a cold winter in the energy markets?

As we head into the winter period, there is a clear focus on energy market rates. In recent years, uncertainty has surrounded supply security, particularly with gas storage levels across Europe and the UK.

Risk was evident in February and March as European storage targets dropped to around 30% levels last seen during the energy crisis of 2022. This created urgency to rebuild stocks before this winter. As a result, any geopolitical disruption or restriction on global transport quickly translated into higher market rates.

Providing some balance to these risks, summer saw strong injections into storage. This has helped temper volatility, and even as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, markets have settled into a narrower trading range.

Storage targets for October shifted repeatedly, with expectations around 83%. Current levels stand at 81%, which is reassuring on the surface. However, it’s important to note that original targets were set closer to 90%, leaving less of a buffer should demand rise sharply.

For now, temperatures are forecast to sit around seasonal averages. But if a cold snap develops, the impact could extend beyond this winter driving volatility and lifting prices well into Summer 2026 and beyond.

To protect yourself from potential market uncertainty, especially in regards to the Summer 2026 and Winter 2026 periods, contact us at hello@gleg.co.uk.