GLEG UK Energy Market Update 14-09-26…

UK Energy Market Summary to Friday 11th September 2026

Closing prices 11.09.2026

Wholesale gas, power and oil markets all strengthened sharply during the week ending 11^th September. UK NBP gas increased by approximately 11.1% to 198.8p/therm, having traded above 205p/therm during the week. Middle East hostilities, disruption to Gulf LNG flows, Norwegian maintenance and low European storage kept winter supply risk firmly priced into the market. UK Winter-26 electricity rose by approximately 10.6% to £161.0/MWh as higher gas costs fed through into power prices. Brent crude increased by approximately 8.7% to $104.61/bbl.

European gas storage continued to rebuild, reaching approximately 67.6% by 11^th September. However, this remained materially below the five-year seasonal average of approximately 84%, with particularly low stocks in Germany and the Netherlands. Europe therefore remains dependent on reliable Norwegian pipeline flows, sufficient LNG availability and manageable winter demand. The forward curve remains strongly backwardated: Calendar-28 gas closed at approximately 94p/therm and electricity at £82/MWh, materially below near-term prices.

Although prices increased across the curve, contracts from 2028 onwards continue to offer more attractive absolute value. Electricity for 2028–2030 traded at approximately 7.1p to 8.2p/kWh, while gas traded at approximately 2.4p to 3.2p/kWh. Businesses should consider securing a measured proportion of future requirements where these levels support budgets, improving long-term cost certainty and reducing exposure to further geopolitical or supply-driven volatility while retaining flexibility should market conditions improve.

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Brent crude rose by approximately 8.7% during the week to $104.61/bbl, extending the previous week’s increase and moving above $100/bbl. Prices reached almost $108/bbl as escalating conflict in the Middle East, attacks on commercial shipping and threats to key production and export infrastructure intensified concerns over global supply. Brent eased on Friday amid profit-taking and tentative hopes of diplomatic progress, but continued disruption across major shipping routes kept a substantial geopolitical premium priced into the market.

Please contact hello@gleg.co.uk for a more detailed market analysis and expert view on how to navigate your energy procurement strategy through the current market volatility.