OPEC+ Moves Forward with Production Increases

Eight leading OPEC+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman, and Kazakhstan — have agreed to begin raising crude oil output in October, according to the OPEC Secretariat.

The group will start unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day (b/d) of cuts agreed in April 2023, with an initial production increase of 137,000 b/d. While this marks the first step in scaling back restrictions, future production changes remain uncertain. OPEC+ stressed that additional supply “may be returned in part or in full” depending on market conditions, and that adjustments will be gradual.

This follows the reversal of 2.2 million b/d cuts agreed in late 2023, a process which also underscored the group’s measured approach. Once again, OPEC+ emphasised its flexibility to pause or even reverse increases if market dynamics demand it.

However, the actual October rise may be smaller than planned, given compensation requirements from past overproduction and capacity challenges faced by Russia and Iraq.

With global oil demand expected to soften in the months ahead — and the IEA projecting surpluses into 2026 — this decision comes at a delicate time. Brent crude futures closed at $65.5 per barrel on September 5, down roughly $3 since the last OPEC+ meeting.

The eight members will reconvene on October 5 to reassess market conditions and the path forward.

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