Energy Markets Ease as Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Unwind

After several weeks of heightened volatility, wholesale energy markets moved lower this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to ease. Progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and improving confidence around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped reduce the risk premium that had been supporting gas and oil prices.

While this is a positive development for energy buyers, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical events and broader supply concerns.

Gas and Oil Prices Move Lower

Brent crude declined throughout the week as traders became more confident that disruption to global oil supplies is becoming less likely. UK wholesale gas prices also softened, supported by healthy pipeline supplies, continued LNG exports from Qatar and improving confidence across global gas markets.

Although prices have eased, they remain above levels seen earlier in the year, highlighting how quickly market sentiment can change.

Power Markets Continue to React to Weather

European power markets remained more volatile than gas markets, with prices responding to changing wind generation forecasts and extreme temperatures across parts of Europe.

Heat-related constraints on French nuclear generation and fluctuations in renewable output continued to influence wholesale electricity prices, reinforcing the growing impact weather conditions can have on energy markets.

GLEG’s View

This week’s movements demonstrate how quickly geopolitical premiums can unwind once supply concerns begin to ease. However, volatility remains a key feature of today’s energy markets, with geopolitical developments, LNG availability, weather patterns and carbon markets all continuing to influence prices.

For businesses, this reinforces the importance of having a structured procurement strategy rather than reacting to short-term market movements. Staying informed and reviewing purchasing decisions regularly remains the best way to manage risk in an increasingly unpredictable market.

How GLEG Can Help

At GLEG, we monitor wholesale energy markets every day, helping businesses understand what’s driving prices and identifying opportunities to reduce risk and control energy costs.

If you’d like to discuss your energy strategy or understand how current market conditions could impact your business, contact our team at hello@gleg.co.uk.