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UK Energy Market Summary to Friday 3rd July 2026
Closing prices 03.07.2026
Wholesale gas and power markets strengthened modestly during the week ending 3 July as attention returned to underlying supply and demand fundamentals. European gas prices recorded their first weekly increase in almost a month, supported by continued LNG demand, steady storage injections and warmer weather forecasts across parts of Europe. Although storage levels continued to build, inventories remain below this time last year, leaving prices sensitive to any disruption in global LNG supply.
Prompt UK and European electricity prices remained volatile as warmer weather increased cooling demand while periods of lower renewable generation tightened supply margins. This increased reliance on gas-fired generation, reinforcing the close relationship between wholesale gas prices and forward electricity markets.
Within the UK generation mix, wind output remained below seasonal averages for periods of the week, increasing gas-fired generation’s contribution to electricity production. As gas-fired power stations continue to set the marginal price of electricity, movements within the gas market remain the principal driver of UK wholesale power prices.
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Brent crude oil also recovered slightly during the week to trade around $72/bbl, following the sharp sell-off seen in late June. With the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East now largely removed, markets have refocused on OPEC+ production policy, global demand expectations and the wider economic outlook.
Looking ahead, wholesale energy markets are expected to remain focused on the pace of European gas storage injections, global LNG availability, summer weather patterns, OPEC+ production decisions and broader economic sentiment. Whilst volatility has eased significantly from the peaks seen during the recent Middle East conflict, these factors are expected to continue driving wholesale gas and power prices throughout the remainder of the summer.